UK public inflation expectations fall in April – Citi/YouGov

LONDON -The British public’s expectations for inflation have fallen after rising for several months, according to a survey that the Bank of England keeps track of as it considers how fast it needs to keep raising interest rates.

U.S. bank Citi and polling firm YouGov said their gauge of expectations for inflation in five to 10 years’ time fell to 4.2% in April from 4.4% in March, the first decline since October of last year.

Public inflation expectations for the coming 12 months declined to 6.0% from March’s record high of 6.1%.

British consumer price inflation hit a 30-year high of 7.0% in March and is set to climb higher in the coming months, leaving households facing the biggest real-terms loss of income since at least the 1950s, according to the government’s budget forecasters.

The BoE is expected to raise borrowing costs for a fourth consecutive meeting on May 5, taking Bank Rate to 1.0%, its highest since 2009, and investors are waiting for signals from the central bank about further increases.

Citi economist Benjamin Nabarro said Thursday’s fall in inflation expectations reduced the chance of a 50 basis-point increase in Bank Rate by the BoE in the months ahead.

The survey of 2,016 adults was conducted on April 20 and April 21.